Will a Silver Tsunami Change the 2024 Housing Market?

Are you familiar with the term “Silver Tsunami” and curious about its significance? Perhaps you’ve come across discussions about it online. Let’s explore its meaning and understand why it’s not expected to have a significant impact on the housing market.

What Does Silver Tsunami Mean?

A recent article from HousingWire calls it:

. . . a colloquialism referring to aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging . . .

The idea revolves around the aging baby boomer population, anticipating a substantial portion to initiate downsizing of their homes. Given the sheer size of this generation, if such downsizing occurred simultaneously in a notable surge, it could potentially disrupt the housing market. This scenario would lead to a considerable increase in the availability of larger homes for sale. The influx of these homes onto the market would influence the equilibrium of supply and demand, creating broader implications for the housing sector.

The concept makes sense in theory, but will it happen? And if so, when?

Why It Won’t Have a Huge Impact on the Housing Market in 2024

Experts say, so far, a silver tsunami hasn’t happened – and it probably won’t anytime soon. According to that same article from HousingWire:

. . . the silver tsunami’s transformative potential for the U.S. housing market has not yet materialized in any meaningful way, and few expect it to anytime soon.

Here’s a compelling factor contributing to the potential limited impact of the “Silver Tsunami.” A significant number of baby boomers express a reluctance to relocate. According to data from the AARP, more than half of surveyed adults aged 65 and above have indicated their intention to remain in their current homes and age in place rather than pursue a move (refer to the chart below for details):

Certainly, not every baby boomer has intentions to sell or relocate, and even among those who do, the process won’t unfold simultaneously. Rather, it will be a gradual transition, unfolding slowly over time. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, underscores this point by stating:

Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.

Bottom Line:

If you’re worried about a Silver Tsunami shaking up the housing market, don’t be. Any impact from baby boomers moving will be gradual over many years. Connect with us!