Expert Quotes on the 2024 Housing Market Forecast

If you’re thinking of a home purchase or sale shortly, you likely seek insights into the anticipated trends of the real estate market in 2024. The challenges experienced in 2023, such as elevated mortgage rates, uncertainty surrounding home prices, and a scarcity of available homes, posed obstacles for those interested in entering the market. What lies ahead in the coming year?

Fortunately, there is positive news, as numerous experts are optimistic that we have reached a turning point and are now moving in a favorable direction.

Mortgage Rates Expected To Ease

In recent times, mortgage rates have begun to decrease, providing a glimmer of hope for buyers grappling with affordability issues. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, elucidates the potential reasons behind this trend and suggests they might continue to decline:

“Mortgage rates have already retreated from recent peaks near 8 percent and may fall further . . .”

Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“For home buyers who are taking on a mortgage to purchase a home and have been wary of the autumn rise in mortgage rates, the market is turning more favorable, and there should be optimism entering 2024 for a better market.”

The Supply of Homes for Sale May Grow

As interest rates become more favorable, there is an anticipation that the housing market’s activity will intensify, with a resurgence of both buyers and sellers who have been delaying their involvement. If more sellers decide to list their properties, it will contribute to an expansion in the supply of homes for sale—a pattern that has already begun to manifest this year, according to Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS.

“Supply will loosen up in 2024. Even homeowners who have been characterized as being ‘locked in’ to low rates will increasingly find that changing family and financial circumstances will lead to more moves and more new listings over the course of the year, particularly as rates move closer to 6.5%.”

Home Price Growth Should Moderate

The reduction in mortgage rates isn’t the sole encouraging indicator for affordability. Forecasts also suggest a moderation in home price growth, driven by an improvement in inventory, albeit still relatively low. The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, involving input from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts, supports this expectation:

“On average, the panel anticipates home price growth to clock in at 5.9% in 2023, to be followed by slower growth in 2024 and 2025 of 2.4 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.” 

In conclusion, industry experts are forecasting a more favorable outlook for the housing market in 2024. Therefore, if you’re contemplating a move next year, it’s encouraging to note that initial indications suggest a positive shift is underway. Expressing this sentiment, Mike Simonsen, President and Founder of Altos Research, remarks:

“We’re going into 2024 with slight home-price gains, somewhat easing inventory constraints, slightly increasing transaction volume . . . All in all, things are looking up for the U.S. housing market in 2024.”

Bottom Line

Experts are optimistic about what 2024 holds for the housing market. If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in the new year, the best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest forecasts is to partner with a trusted real estate agent. Let’s connect.